Empfohlener Beitrag

TSLA a Value Buy? 2019 P/S below 1.5

Freitag, 12. Oktober 2018

Stopped out of FB and FCAU positions

Down against a recovering broader market; had tight stops.

No longer holding FB and FCAU.

Buying FB on downgrade, pullback

I also added some FB today.

Morgan Stanley cut estimates and price target. Might be near a bottom after the disastrous q2 cc in July, privacy fears and recent market pullback on China "trade war" (which by the way does not actually hurt Facebook, because they don't have a lot of China related business).

Business is still solid, PE 20 does not need future growth to match past growth; debt near zero.

Bought some at 155.31, will sell if it bounces significantly within a few days, otherwise hold long term.

Disclosure

I am long FB.

Disclaimer 

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Buying FCAU on Electric and Self Driving Expectations

Except Tesla, almost all automotive companies are currently trading at historically low multiples (PE below 10). For a good reason: The market, including myself, expects huge changes in the industry, by the advance of self driving and electric cars. Adding to that, most car makers have high debt levels and low margins already. As Elon Musk repeatedly pointed out: Tesla and Ford are the only US automakers that have not filed for bancruptcy protection yet.

I think those bad expectations are more than sufficiantly priced in and am buying FCAU after the recent pullback because they are cooperating with Google/Waymo on self driving cars and I think they are probably ahead of everyone else (with the possible exception of Tesla) in that field; Also, FCAU dramatically improved their balance sheet buy paying down billions of debt over the past few years.

Bought at 16.39, will sell if it bounces significantly within in a few days. Otherwise hold long term.

Disclosure

I am long TSLA and FCAU and GOOGL

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's more like a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Mittwoch, 10. Oktober 2018

US-China Trade War: Buying BYD and Xiaomi

While Hong Kong stock market continues to be near multiyear lows, I think news about "trade war" are about to ebb. So I think this is a good opportunity to buy Chinese Companies at the Hong Kong stock exchange. After buying agribusiness company China Agri-Industies about 2 weeks ago I am adding some tech stocks today.

Both are pretty well known (BYD mainly for being backed by Buffett, Xiaomi for being one of the fastest growing smartphone makers), without any recent news events that would have made them overpriced highflyers, so I think they have been trading near fair value; both don't sell a lot in the US, so the whole Trump tariff game won't hit their results significantly. Still, trade war news have been dragging both stocks down with the market.

Bought BYD at 50.05 (HKD); Xiaomi at 13.8.

Disclosure

I am long BYD and Xiaomi.

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Donnerstag, 27. September 2018

Buying Agribusiness Stocks While Agri Commodities are Down

I am not going to put much effort into writing a long post about this as I think only few people are interested in this area. I'm buying agricultural stocks because they have been in a sideways or down trend for years (except US agri stocks, which tended to move up with the broader market).

With oil price on the rise, agricultural commodity prices will follow sooner or later, because sugar (ethanol) and vegetable oil will increasingly be used so replace gasoline and diesel.

Many agri stocks and commodities prices peaked around 2014 when oil price (WTI) was above $100 per barrel. Oil companies stocks did too. And while many oil stocks recovered with rising oil, agri is still down. I expect that to change. I decided to pick the big asian players, because they are at extra bargain levels since US-China trade "war" makes news on a daily basis (which I expect to fade).

I'm buying Wilmar and China-Agri. (The latter is a spin off from China's state owned COFCO. I usually don't like buying state owned or affiliated stocks, but I make an exception for this one because it looks really cheap.)

I might short oil or oil companies' stocks as a hedge in the future, but I expect them to rise a little more until they peak again so I'm waiting.

Disclosure
I am long Wilmar International and China-Agri Industries.

Disclaimer
Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Mittwoch, 26. September 2018

Buying GOOGL Because FANG Uptrend is Broken

I have a long history investing in Google. My first encounter with the stock was shortly after its IPO, when it was only a search engine (albeit a very good one, already dominating that market). I dared to short it then (via put options) because I remembered very well that only a few years before "Altavista" and Yahoo dominated the internet search business and I did not see why a search engine company should be valued above 20 billion dollars, when obviously a few years later the next leader will arise and displace it.
That didn't turn out to be a profitable bet (as you might already have guessed). It took me a while to see and understand why Google was here to stay but eventually I got it and switched sides to become a GOOG shareholder - and stayed that for many years.

Can't grow forever

Only in recent years did i trade in and out of the stock because, obviously, the company can't grow at a 15-20% rate forever (and the stock's valuation still assumes significant growth at least for a few more years).

Or, can they?

What made me change my mind again is to see what Alphabet did with "Youtube Kids". As the father of a two year old I can tell: Kids love it. I would even say, I am not aware of any other product that can entertain a child of that age in an equally addictive way (you better hide that option from your kids as long as possible!).

Of course, Youtube Kids is not worth a trillion dollars. But it is a good example how Alphabet has been diversifying its business from search. They don't stop creating products almost everyone uses almost every day.

And this company does not only invent great products (actually, they did not even invent online search). But they have tens of thousands of very capable engineers and so they have managed to make things that already existed before so much better that nobody could compete with Alphabet's product. Which is quite impressive, because the competitors they beat are also multibillion dollar tech companies, the likes of Microsoft (who they beat in the browser market although Internet Explorer had a head start and came bundled with the almost-monopoly desktop operating system Windows. Still Chrome became dominant; as Android did in mobile OS).

What the market is missing

Ok, we already have a market cap of 830 billion dollars (enterprise value 100 b lower - they have a huge cash balance) with multiples (PE, P/S) nowhere nearly suggesting a "value bet". This clearly isn't a hidden gem.

But I think there are still areas into which Alphabet can grow at fast pace, which are not fully appreciated by the market (banking, for example).

By many investors, GOOGL is seen and treated as part of "FANG" or "FAANG" (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) - but while i do agree that F, A (Apple) and N might stop growing as early as next year, I think G is different.

I'm buying below 1200.


Disclosure 

I am long GOOGL.


Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendationit's only an explanation for my own trading.)
I do not know the future either.