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TSLA a Value Buy? 2019 P/S below 1.5

Dienstag, 11. September 2018

Tesla Update: Adding on Downgrades

Not even a week has passed since I wrote my first blog post (ever), about Tesla valuation and sentiment.

Within those few days, insideevs posted an article about August EV sales, in Tesla's case estimates (which would make the Model 3 the bestselling model in the US by revenue for a single month - ALL cars included, not only electric. Elon Musk shared those estimates, so chances are they are not far off from actual deliveries); Tesla's CAO left after only one month; Musk drank whiskey and puffed marihuana on a podcast; Nomura and others downgraded the stock; Musk wrote in an e-mail to employees that production and deliveries in this quarter (which ends in two weeks from now, so he should not be too far off) would be more than double q2's numbers; wrote a tweet that they reduced available colours for Model 3 to simplify manufacturing (which in my view points to another production ramp; probably paint shop has been a bottleneck to significantly exceed 5k Model 3 a week).

My take: For my investment thesis (solid growth, profit near, p/s low), Q3 guidance clearly outweighs all other news, because it is another hint that sales are strong and breakeven point could be near (or even already crossed). Nomura downgrade moved stock price below 280 again today (where i wrote my previous post). So i am adding to my TSLA long position here.

I expect current weeks to be the peak regarding Elon Musk "erratic" behaviour news. (Because 1. He obviously has already realised shareholders desperately wish he was more careful, especially on twitter. 2. People tend to get bored by this kind of news, so media, at least financial media will stop covering everything he does in detail.)

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