Empfohlener Beitrag

TSLA a Value Buy? 2019 P/S below 1.5

Freitag, 12. Oktober 2018

Stopped out of FB and FCAU positions

Down against a recovering broader market; had tight stops.

No longer holding FB and FCAU.

Buying FB on downgrade, pullback

I also added some FB today.

Morgan Stanley cut estimates and price target. Might be near a bottom after the disastrous q2 cc in July, privacy fears and recent market pullback on China "trade war" (which by the way does not actually hurt Facebook, because they don't have a lot of China related business).

Business is still solid, PE 20 does not need future growth to match past growth; debt near zero.

Bought some at 155.31, will sell if it bounces significantly within a few days, otherwise hold long term.

Disclosure

I am long FB.

Disclaimer 

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Buying FCAU on Electric and Self Driving Expectations

Except Tesla, almost all automotive companies are currently trading at historically low multiples (PE below 10). For a good reason: The market, including myself, expects huge changes in the industry, by the advance of self driving and electric cars. Adding to that, most car makers have high debt levels and low margins already. As Elon Musk repeatedly pointed out: Tesla and Ford are the only US automakers that have not filed for bancruptcy protection yet.

I think those bad expectations are more than sufficiantly priced in and am buying FCAU after the recent pullback because they are cooperating with Google/Waymo on self driving cars and I think they are probably ahead of everyone else (with the possible exception of Tesla) in that field; Also, FCAU dramatically improved their balance sheet buy paying down billions of debt over the past few years.

Bought at 16.39, will sell if it bounces significantly within in a few days. Otherwise hold long term.

Disclosure

I am long TSLA and FCAU and GOOGL

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's more like a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Mittwoch, 10. Oktober 2018

US-China Trade War: Buying BYD and Xiaomi

While Hong Kong stock market continues to be near multiyear lows, I think news about "trade war" are about to ebb. So I think this is a good opportunity to buy Chinese Companies at the Hong Kong stock exchange. After buying agribusiness company China Agri-Industies about 2 weeks ago I am adding some tech stocks today.

Both are pretty well known (BYD mainly for being backed by Buffett, Xiaomi for being one of the fastest growing smartphone makers), without any recent news events that would have made them overpriced highflyers, so I think they have been trading near fair value; both don't sell a lot in the US, so the whole Trump tariff game won't hit their results significantly. Still, trade war news have been dragging both stocks down with the market.

Bought BYD at 50.05 (HKD); Xiaomi at 13.8.

Disclosure

I am long BYD and Xiaomi.

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.