Empfohlener Beitrag

TSLA a Value Buy? 2019 P/S below 1.5

Mittwoch, 31. Oktober 2018

Selling out of BYD (to buy more XON)

BYD announced q3 results a few days ago. They were roughly in line with what I expected, as was the optimistic q4 outlook. So, I am not selling BYD because profit is down, I think this is temporary, based on new models, new battery technology and new government incentives policy.
I would not buy large amounts of BYD at this point because of the long term outlook. It might be a few quarters too early to sell, because I think 2019 will be a fantastic year for their EVs business. But I expect that will be the peak: starting 2020, Tesla is going to produce in significant volumes in China (they recently announced they are going to speed up factory building there); other large auto companies from the USA and Europe are going to get out their electric vehicles as well, some particularly designed for the Chinese market.

Swapping BYD for more XON

I basically think BYD is a hold, but I am selling today, because I need more money to invest in what I think is the best opportunity at the moment (Intrexon: it's not a short term story and it did not change at all - share price still down with the market, 25% from where it was a few weeks ago; any news might move it 25% in an instant, like the - IMO totally insignificant - cannabis news did in september) - and I still think it would not be wise to buy anything on margin, as markets are only a few percentage points below their all time highs yet.

By the way, I also sold JD and bought more China agri-industries (which was a minor move, as I only had a small position and sold it for essentially no other reason but to concentrate my "China bet"-money at what I came to think is the best bet in Chinese stocks), and for similar reasons I also sold Red Hat although I don't have much doubt about IBM deal and so I think it is going to 190 within a year.

Disclosure

So my current portfolio is dominated by XON, TSLA and China agri-industries (live quotes for HK Stock exchange can be found here).

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Montag, 29. Oktober 2018

Buying Red Hat below 180: IBM to pay 190 per share

IBM announced to buy all outstanding shares of RHT at $190 per share. So stock price will go to very near 190 (unless something unexpected happens that would stop the deal - unlikely IMO).

I bought RHT at 176 in premarket trading.

(Update: I closed this position with a small loss, shifted the money into XON; I have very little doubt the deal is going to happen but it takes a while until RHT shareholders and regulalators approve; I hope XON will move up faster but I would definitely not short RHT at this point.)

Disclosure

I am long RHT.

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Donnerstag, 25. Oktober 2018

Great Earnings, Great Outlook - Adding to TSLA position

Today's premarket reflects what happened to other stocks reporting great earnings recently (like NFLX): after an initial large pop, the stock gives back some of the gains and trades only slightly above yesterday's highs (BEFORE numbers were out). But this is a very different situation.

Pre market traders probably do not see the game changing quality of this earnings announcement. The short thesis for TSLA stock is basically "the company is structurally bankrupt, because it is losing money on every car they sell". Last quarter, Tesla proved the opposite: they made money on every model they sell. And, above that, they predicted they will do so in every future quarter.

Basically, I still believe everything I wrote here about why market fails to value TSLA correctly. But, after q3 revenue came in 10% higher than I expected, I think all my estimates for 2018 and 2019 were too conservative - so I conclude TSLA at 315 is as cheap as TSLA was at 280 some weeks ago.

I doubled my TSLA position on pre market weakness (vs. yesterday's after hours) at 315. (Strategy: keeping core position long term, trading the other half on short term mispricing like this.)

Disclosure
I am long TSLA.
Disclaimer
Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Update: Selling order was filled for a 2% intraday gain, still holding core position

Dienstag, 23. Oktober 2018

Adding China, selling Wilmar, FDP

I am adding to my Chinese Bets.

As I do not want to increase overall portfolio value and I think stock prices - except China - are still a bit too high, I am selling out of other positions.

I am still holding long term bets XON, TSLA and GOOGL; selling out of other posistions, which is Wilmar and Fresh Del Monte (although I still like those stocks and will add again if China bounces back or those stocks go down further).

I added JD (JD.com) and increased China Agri-Industries, Xiaomi and BYD positions.

I have been thinking about taking stakes in other popular Chinese companies like Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent, too, but (in contrast to JD) those are still trading at very high valuations, markets are hardly pricing in significant impacts from an ongoing "trade war" and (in my opinion more important) also not pricing in that at some point the likes of Google, Facebook and Amazon might finally gain some ground in China. I might buy those highflyers if they show significant signs they can compete with world leaders in an unprotected market - i.e. out of China.

Freitag, 12. Oktober 2018

Stopped out of FB and FCAU positions

Down against a recovering broader market; had tight stops.

No longer holding FB and FCAU.

Buying FB on downgrade, pullback

I also added some FB today.

Morgan Stanley cut estimates and price target. Might be near a bottom after the disastrous q2 cc in July, privacy fears and recent market pullback on China "trade war" (which by the way does not actually hurt Facebook, because they don't have a lot of China related business).

Business is still solid, PE 20 does not need future growth to match past growth; debt near zero.

Bought some at 155.31, will sell if it bounces significantly within a few days, otherwise hold long term.

Disclosure

I am long FB.

Disclaimer 

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Buying FCAU on Electric and Self Driving Expectations

Except Tesla, almost all automotive companies are currently trading at historically low multiples (PE below 10). For a good reason: The market, including myself, expects huge changes in the industry, by the advance of self driving and electric cars. Adding to that, most car makers have high debt levels and low margins already. As Elon Musk repeatedly pointed out: Tesla and Ford are the only US automakers that have not filed for bancruptcy protection yet.

I think those bad expectations are more than sufficiantly priced in and am buying FCAU after the recent pullback because they are cooperating with Google/Waymo on self driving cars and I think they are probably ahead of everyone else (with the possible exception of Tesla) in that field; Also, FCAU dramatically improved their balance sheet buy paying down billions of debt over the past few years.

Bought at 16.39, will sell if it bounces significantly within in a few days. Otherwise hold long term.

Disclosure

I am long TSLA and FCAU and GOOGL

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's more like a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.

Mittwoch, 10. Oktober 2018

US-China Trade War: Buying BYD and Xiaomi

While Hong Kong stock market continues to be near multiyear lows, I think news about "trade war" are about to ebb. So I think this is a good opportunity to buy Chinese Companies at the Hong Kong stock exchange. After buying agribusiness company China Agri-Industies about 2 weeks ago I am adding some tech stocks today.

Both are pretty well known (BYD mainly for being backed by Buffett, Xiaomi for being one of the fastest growing smartphone makers), without any recent news events that would have made them overpriced highflyers, so I think they have been trading near fair value; both don't sell a lot in the US, so the whole Trump tariff game won't hit their results significantly. Still, trade war news have been dragging both stocks down with the market.

Bought BYD at 50.05 (HKD); Xiaomi at 13.8.

Disclosure

I am long BYD and Xiaomi.

Disclaimer

Of course, everything I write is only my opinion and should not replace your own research. (It's not even a recommendation, it's only a documentation of and an explanation for my own trading.) I do not know the future either.